Obama Lands …

Nancy DiNardo, Chair, Conn State Democratic Party

DNC member Jerome Wiley Segovia, Virginia

Clinton Lands …

Chris Whittington, Louisiana Democratic Party

Further — Tim Russert commented on Today ;this race will be over Wednesday morning”.  We tend to believe that, but Russert’s predictions this campaign have been less than accurate.

Finally, former Iowa Governor Tom Vilsack, a Clinton co-Chair, has effectively expressed the end.

Tom Vilsack, the former Iowa governor and a national co-chairman of Clinton’s campaign, said Sunday: “It does appear to be pretty clear that Senator Obama is going to be the nominee. After Tuesday’s contests, she needs to acknowledge that he’s going to be the nominee and quickly get behind him.”

Barrack Obama: 2069 (1738.5 Pledged, 330.5 Super)

Hillary Clinton: 1912 (1622.5 Pledged, 290 Super)

That puts Obama just 49 delegates from clinching the Democratic nomination. Montana has 24 delegates and South Dakota has 23. Even if they divide those in half, which i snot expected because Obama is expected to win Montana and the last poll had him ahead in South Dakota, he would need somewhere between 25 and 30 Supers Delegates to declare buy Tuesday to claim the nomination.

That’s the best we can do with fuzzy math right now.

For sure the people most to blame are the DNC themselves.  Long before Florida and Michigan moved there elections up the standard automatic penalty in place was dividing the delegate totals in half.  But instead of following through on the rules in place the DNC decided to not only try and take away all the votes from these states, but also pressure the candidates to take their names off the ballots in Michigan.  Let’s be clear the DNC created this mess and though it looks like they made the right decision yesterday, certain heads should roll because of it. 

Yet there is some rancor over the 1/2 delegate rulings.  The first, why Supers are only being counted as 1/2 delegates, is easy enough to answer.  After all the flack the Democratic party has taken for the very existence of Super delegates, no way would they have given them more votes weight then the elected delegates in the home state.  It would be one of the worst PR moves ever, and I guess we can thank our lucky stars they found some common sense throughout this process.

The Michigan allocation is a little different though.  The Clinton Campaign is upset that the allocation of votes were determined as part of a compromise and not in accordance to the election results.  And as a theoretical political discussion I guess it merits some consideration.  But at the end of the day we are talking about a difference 5-10 votes, period. 

Without a flood of Super Delegates swinging into Clinton”s favor, the election will most likely wrap up by the end of next week as Obama gets the new magic number of 2117.   Currently he is 65 delegates away.

Obama picks up a DNC Super from Nevada, Yvonne Woods. Woods was participant in th DNC Bylaws Committee meeting yesterday.

Obama picks up Maine add on.

Barack Obama picked up a national delegate from Maine on Sunday as the Democratic State Convention closed. Delegates ratified the party chairman’s nomination of Gwethalyn Phillips of Bangor, a former state party official, as an “unpledged add-on” delegate as specified in party rules. But Maine Democratic Party Executive Director Arden Manning said Phillips was recognized as an active Obama supporter.

Hillary Clinton will net 19 delegates out of Florida.  The bylaws committee by a vote of 27-0 voted to seat the entire Florida delegation, but the delegates would count only as half.

The Michigan plan was more contentious, and in the end, by a vote of 19-8, the Committee approved a 69-59 split, with the delegates counting half, giving Clinton a net of 5 out of Michigan.

Harold Ickes, the Clinton delegate guru, reserved the right for Clinton to appeal the decision tot he Credentials Committee in Denver at the Convention.  Realistically, they can make that claim, but that avenue is unlikely given the powers of the party stance on ending this race sooner rather than later, the fact that the Credential Committee is more Pro-Obama compared tot he Pro-Clinton Bylaws Committee, and the fact that
Clinton now must ponder her legacy and future and immense damage that could occur should she choose to go to Denver.

1.) Do Nothing. The committee could chose to do absolutely nothing and refuse to seat and delegates from Michigan and Florida. I doubt this choice is actually going to happen. Both Obama and Clinton campaigns have said that some delegation from these states, and since both states are toss ups in the National Election according to recent polling. This option would likely leave the Clinton camp with an excuse to take this fight ot the convention floor, and no one wants that.

2.) Count them Fully. If there is anything less likely then not counting them at all, it’s counting them fully. With Obama not on the ballot in Michigan it makes it impossible to actually count those states totals. Florida has a better chance of being counted fully (more on that later) but it is doubtful there either.

3.) Some kind of compromise. This is the most likely Scenario but the devil is in the details here. First off the committee must decide what kind of penalty, if any, they will enact against both states for moving their primary ahead of the DNC early date of February 3rd. More then likely the penalty will be a 1/2 delegate seating. Florida though has a long shot but interesting argument that it was the GOP state legislature and GOP governor who moved their election up and penalizing the Democrats of the state for the actions of the GOP has some weight with the members of the committee who remember the debacle of 2000. And once the normal delegate penalty is decided the committee will then have to decide what to do with eh Super delegates. More then likely these votes will be counted in full with no penalty.

After the penalty is decided then it has to be decided on what ratio the elected delegates will be seated. In Florida more then likely the votes will be seated according to the election results. Boith candidates were on the ballot and there was historic turnout in the primary. The Obama argument that their candidate was not allowed to campaign there will not hold much water as most committee members know that the national tv ads were running in the state and both campaigns had “volunteer” organizations up and running. Florida will be seated as the elections happened.

Michigan is another matter. The Clinton argument is the one that won’t hold water here. Obama’s name was not on the ballot and it wasn’t there because the DNC urged all candidates to take their name off the ballot, and Hillary was the only one who did not do so. So the committee would likely decide how to proportionally split the delegates. Clinton wants 70/30, Obama wants 50/50…look for the committee to decide a 60/40 split.

Later tonight I will write a reaction to the final decision. But let me be clear there are plenty of people to blame for this mess. The state governments of both states should never have moved their votes in front of the deadline. The DNC should never have over reacted by threatening to take away all votes form 2 swing states (the GOP enacted a reasonable 1/2 penalty and allowed the candidates to campaign there). And lastly BOTH campaigns are at fault as well. If Hillary wanted these votes to count the whole time, she should have never signed the pledge not to campaign in either. The Obama camp scuttled serious attempts in both states to have re-votes after the deadline as well. Everyone is to blame and the DNC and us Democrats must take a look at how we chose our Presidential candidate….again.

UPDATE: Although details are still being worked out, an apparent agreement has been reached on Florida. Half the delegates will be seated. It is also reported that the Florida super delegates will be counted as half as well. Looks like details just need meshed here, but Michigan is the outstanding problem.

Hillary Clinton gets none.

Obama 2-0

You know, check out The Page and you can see a pretty angry picture of Bob Dole, looks like he will pop a few blood vessels.  But do you think he really is mad at Scott McClellan.  Come on.

I think he really is mad at the fact his lovely wife Elizabeth Dole, is in trouble in a state where a Republican should be safe.  Dole leads Democratic candidate Kay Hagan but just 2 points, 45-43.  Furhter, the fact she is below 50% spells even more doom.

As the Wyoming poll showed, the Democratic candidate Gary Trauner is leading Republican Cynthia Lummis 44-41. The fact that the Democrats nearly picked this seat off in 2006 was amazing, the fact the Democrats are leading in 2008 shows the wave may be bigger than many believe.