Super Tracker for June 2
BARACK OBAMA: 2 HILLARY CLINTON: 1
Obama Lands …
Nancy DiNardo, Chair, Conn State Democratic Party
DNC member Jerome Wiley Segovia, Virginia
Clinton Lands …
Chris Whittington, Louisiana Democratic Party
Race Winding Down, Party Uniting
The race for the Democratic nomination is all but over, and will likely be effectively over by Wednesday morning. On NBC Today, Andrea Mitchell reported that ‘top’ US Senators (likely Majority Leader Harry Reid, Max Baucus, Joe Biden, Tom Harkin, Jake Reed) will endorse Barrack Obama tomorrow, likely after polls close. In addition, NBC also reported that Obama staffers have begun reaching out to Clinton staffers.
Further — Tim Russert commented on Today ;this race will be over Wednesday morning”. We tend to believe that, but Russert’s predictions this campaign have been less than accurate.
Finally, former Iowa Governor Tom Vilsack, a Clinton co-Chair, has effectively expressed the end.
Tom Vilsack, the former Iowa governor and a national co-chairman of Clinton’s campaign, said Sunday: “It does appear to be pretty clear that Senator Obama is going to be the nominee. After Tuesday’s contests, she needs to acknowledge that he’s going to be the nominee and quickly get behind him.”
The Democratic Math
Ok, taking a look at the numbers, this is what we see. The new magic number, following the DNC Bylaws Committee decision yesterday is 2,118 need to clinch the Democratic nominations. Assuming that the Puerto Rico split is 34-14 in favor of Clinton, here is what the current math likely looks like.
Barrack Obama: 2069 (1738.5 Pledged, 330.5 Super)
Hillary Clinton: 1912 (1622.5 Pledged, 290 Super)
That puts Obama just 49 delegates from clinching the Democratic nomination. Montana has 24 delegates and South Dakota has 23. Even if they divide those in half, which i snot expected because Obama is expected to win Montana and the last poll had him ahead in South Dakota, he would need somewhere between 25 and 30 Supers Delegates to declare buy Tuesday to claim the nomination.
That’s the best we can do with fuzzy math right now.
Clinton wins Puerto Rico
As expected, Hillary Clinton received a decisive victory in today’s primary voting in the US Commonwealth, Puerto Rico. Clinton took 68% of the vote to Barack Obama’s 32%. The win in Puerto Rico really means nothing more than symbolism for a Clinton candidacy on the verge of ending.
Super Tracker (6/1)
Barack Obama 2 Hillary Clinton 0
Obama picks up a DNC Super from Nevada, Yvonne Woods. Woods was participant in th DNC Bylaws Committee meeting yesterday.
Obama picks up Maine add on.
Barack Obama picked up a national delegate from Maine on Sunday as the Democratic State Convention closed. Delegates ratified the party chairman’s nomination of Gwethalyn Phillips of Bangor, a former state party official, as an “unpledged add-on” delegate as specified in party rules. But Maine Democratic Party Executive Director Arden Manning said Phillips was recognized as an active Obama supporter.
Clinton Nets 24 Delegates, Obama Only 66 Away
The DNC Bylaws committee made the long awaited decision on what to do with Florida and Michigan.
Hillary Clinton will net 19 delegates out of Florida. The bylaws committee by a vote of 27-0 voted to seat the entire Florida delegation, but the delegates would count only as half.
The Michigan plan was more contentious, and in the end, by a vote of 19-8, the Committee approved a 69-59 split, with the delegates counting half, giving Clinton a net of 5 out of Michigan.
Harold Ickes, the Clinton delegate guru, reserved the right for Clinton to appeal the decision tot he Credentials Committee in Denver at the Convention. Realistically, they can make that claim, but that avenue is unlikely given the powers of the party stance on ending this race sooner rather than later, the fact that the Credential Committee is more Pro-Obama compared tot he Pro-Clinton Bylaws Committee, and the fact that
Clinton now must ponder her legacy and future and immense damage that could occur should she choose to go to Denver.
Super Delegates (May 30)
Barack Obama gets a husband and wife DNC combo from Texas.
Hillary Clinton gets none.
Obama 2-0
Good News in Polls today for DEM
Congressional Polling roundup.
You know, check out The Page and you can see a pretty angry picture of Bob Dole, looks like he will pop a few blood vessels. But do you think he really is mad at Scott McClellan. Come on.
I think he really is mad at the fact his lovely wife Elizabeth Dole, is in trouble in a state where a Republican should be safe. Dole leads Democratic candidate Kay Hagan but just 2 points, 45-43. Furhter, the fact she is below 50% spells even more doom.
As the Wyoming poll showed, the Democratic candidate Gary Trauner is leading Republican Cynthia Lummis 44-41. The fact that the Democrats nearly picked this seat off in 2006 was amazing, the fact the Democrats are leading in 2008 shows the wave may be bigger than many believe.
VA Senate: Warner looking good
A new Virginia Commonwealth poll has some good news for Virginia Democrat Mark Warner, who is seeking to replace the retiring Republican John Warner in the U.S. Senate. 47% of Virginians approve of Mark Warner and only 10% do not approve of him. Those are good numbers, even for a former [and popular] state governor. Warner’s GOP opponent this fall, former governor Jim Gilmore has the approval of only 23% of Virginians, while 15% disapprove of him. Stick this race in the Strongly Lean Democratic category and keep it there until further notice.
Polling for Today (Presidential)
Research 2000 released a Wyoming poll, more specifically for the Wyoming at Large seat. But here are the presidential election numbers, no surprises. John McCain leads Barack Obama 53-40. Not a surpise. Obama stands no chance in Wyoming, he can forget it.
On a positive note for Obama, a new Survey USA poll has him up in Wisconsin 48-42 over McCain. Last poll done had Obama up 48-43 over McCain. Essentially the same.
An Obama/Edwards ticket polls the strongest given the various Survey USA matchups, such as Ohio. That is pretty consistent with other Survey USA polls, matching Edwards as Veep.
As we progress in getting everything up and running, we will have a static page for poll tracking. Obviously, Wyoming will be listed as SAFE GOP while Wisconsin will be listed as LEAN DEM.
