The Democratic Math

Ok, taking a look at the numbers, this is what we see. The new magic number, following the DNC Bylaws Committee decision yesterday is 2,118 need to clinch the Democratic nominations. Assuming that the Puerto Rico split is 34-14 in favor of Clinton, here is what the current math likely looks like.

Barrack Obama: 2069 (1738.5 Pledged, 330.5 Super)

Hillary Clinton: 1912 (1622.5 Pledged, 290 Super)

That puts Obama just 49 delegates from clinching the Democratic nomination. Montana has 24 delegates and South Dakota has 23. Even if they divide those in half, which i snot expected because Obama is expected to win Montana and the last poll had him ahead in South Dakota, he would need somewhere between 25 and 30 Supers Delegates to declare buy Tuesday to claim the nomination.

That’s the best we can do with fuzzy math right now.

Clinton wins Puerto Rico

As expected, Hillary Clinton received a decisive victory in today’s primary voting in the US Commonwealth, Puerto Rico.  Clinton took 68% of the vote to Barack Obama’s 32%.  The win in Puerto Rico really means nothing more than symbolism for a Clinton candidacy on the verge of ending.

Much Ado About Nothing

So the Rules and Bylaws committee has said that delegates from Florida and Michigan would be counted as a half vote for each delegate, including Supers.  Of course this was expected and a reasonable and appropriate response.  So why did it take so long?  And why is there seemingly so much anger over the ruling from certain parts of the party?

For sure the people most to blame are the DNC themselves.  Long before Florida and Michigan moved there elections up the standard automatic penalty in place was dividing the delegate totals in half.  But instead of following through on the rules in place the DNC decided to not only try and take away all the votes from these states, but also pressure the candidates to take their names off the ballots in Michigan.  Let’s be clear the DNC created this mess and though it looks like they made the right decision yesterday, certain heads should roll because of it. 

Yet there is some rancor over the 1/2 delegate rulings.  The first, why Supers are only being counted as 1/2 delegates, is easy enough to answer.  After all the flack the Democratic party has taken for the very existence of Super delegates, no way would they have given them more votes weight then the elected delegates in the home state.  It would be one of the worst PR moves ever, and I guess we can thank our lucky stars they found some common sense throughout this process.

The Michigan allocation is a little different though.  The Clinton Campaign is upset that the allocation of votes were determined as part of a compromise and not in accordance to the election results.  And as a theoretical political discussion I guess it merits some consideration.  But at the end of the day we are talking about a difference 5-10 votes, period. 

Without a flood of Super Delegates swinging into Clinton’’s favor, the election will most likely wrap up by the end of next week as Obama gets the new magic number of 2117.   Currently he is 65 delegates away.

Super Tracker (6/1)

Barack Obama 2 Hillary Clinton 0

Obama picks up a DNC Super from Nevada, Yvonne Woods. Woods was participant in th DNC Bylaws Committee meeting yesterday.

Obama picks up Maine add on.

Barack Obama picked up a national delegate from Maine on Sunday as the Democratic State Convention closed. Delegates ratified the party chairman’s nomination of Gwethalyn Phillips of Bangor, a former state party official, as an “unpledged add-on” delegate as specified in party rules. But Maine Democratic Party Executive Director Arden Manning said Phillips was recognized as an active Obama supporter.

Clinton Nets 24 Delegates, Obama Only 66 Away

The DNC Bylaws committee made the long awaited decision on what to do with Florida and Michigan.

Hillary Clinton will net 19 delegates out of Florida.  The bylaws committee by a vote of 27-0 voted to seat the entire Florida delegation, but the delegates would count only as half.

The Michigan plan was more contentious, and in the end, by a vote of 19-8, the Committee approved a 69-59 split, with the delegates counting half, giving Clinton a net of 5 out of Michigan.

Harold Ickes, the Clinton delegate guru, reserved the right for Clinton to appeal the decision tot he Credentials Committee in Denver at the Convention.  Realistically, they can make that claim, but that avenue is unlikely given the powers of the party stance on ending this race sooner rather than later, the fact that the Credential Committee is more Pro-Obama compared tot he Pro-Clinton Bylaws Committee, and the fact that
Clinton now must ponder her legacy and future and immense damage that could occur should she choose to go to Denver.