Michigan and Florida decided today. Unless it is not.

Today the DNC Rules and Bylaws committee is meeting today to decide Florida and Michigan’s delegate status. There are many different scenarios out there but really the committee will decide one of three main choices on what to do with Florida and Michigan:

1.) Do Nothing. The committee could chose to do absolutely nothing and refuse to seat and delegates from Michigan and Florida. I doubt this choice is actually going to happen. Both Obama and Clinton campaigns have said that some delegation from these states, and since both states are toss ups in the National Election according to recent polling. This option would likely leave the Clinton camp with an excuse to take this fight ot the convention floor, and no one wants that.

2.) Count them Fully. If there is anything less likely then not counting them at all, it’s counting them fully. With Obama not on the ballot in Michigan it makes it impossible to actually count those states totals. Florida has a better chance of being counted fully (more on that later) but it is doubtful there either.

3.) Some kind of compromise. This is the most likely Scenario but the devil is in the details here. First off the committee must decide what kind of penalty, if any, they will enact against both states for moving their primary ahead of the DNC early date of February 3rd. More then likely the penalty will be a 1/2 delegate seating. Florida though has a long shot but interesting argument that it was the GOP state legislature and GOP governor who moved their election up and penalizing the Democrats of the state for the actions of the GOP has some weight with the members of the committee who remember the debacle of 2000. And once the normal delegate penalty is decided the committee will then have to decide what to do with eh Super delegates. More then likely these votes will be counted in full with no penalty.

After the penalty is decided then it has to be decided on what ratio the elected delegates will be seated. In Florida more then likely the votes will be seated according to the election results. Boith candidates were on the ballot and there was historic turnout in the primary. The Obama argument that their candidate was not allowed to campaign there will not hold much water as most committee members know that the national tv ads were running in the state and both campaigns had “volunteer” organizations up and running. Florida will be seated as the elections happened.

Michigan is another matter. The Clinton argument is the one that won’t hold water here. Obama’s name was not on the ballot and it wasn’t there because the DNC urged all candidates to take their name off the ballot, and Hillary was the only one who did not do so. So the committee would likely decide how to proportionally split the delegates. Clinton wants 70/30, Obama wants 50/50…look for the committee to decide a 60/40 split.

Later tonight I will write a reaction to the final decision. But let me be clear there are plenty of people to blame for this mess. The state governments of both states should never have moved their votes in front of the deadline. The DNC should never have over reacted by threatening to take away all votes form 2 swing states (the GOP enacted a reasonable 1/2 penalty and allowed the candidates to campaign there). And lastly BOTH campaigns are at fault as well. If Hillary wanted these votes to count the whole time, she should have never signed the pledge not to campaign in either. The Obama camp scuttled serious attempts in both states to have re-votes after the deadline as well. Everyone is to blame and the DNC and us Democrats must take a look at how we chose our Presidential candidate….again.

UPDATE: Although details are still being worked out, an apparent agreement has been reached on Florida. Half the delegates will be seated. It is also reported that the Florida super delegates will be counted as half as well. Looks like details just need meshed here, but Michigan is the outstanding problem.